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In recent years, there has been a significant shift in Armenia’s foreign policy, often described as “de-Russification.” Yerevan is gradually distancing itself from its historical ally, Russia, and increasingly engaging in high-level discussions and strategic partnerships with the US and the EU, as well as with Western institutions.
Historically, Armenia’s security was linked to its military alliance with Russia. However, with the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia’s credibility as Armenia’s security guarantor suffered a significant blow. Moscow is also dealing with the ongoing war in Ukraine and the collapse of the Syrian regime, both of which give incentives for the Armenian leadership to shift its focus.
As an indication of this, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has stated that Armenia intends to leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization and has little interest in the Commonwealth of Independent States, both of which are led by Russia. Some pro-government political groups have even called for a referendum on Armenia’s potential membership in the EU. Moreover, Armenia ratified the Rome Statute after the International Criminal Court issued an indictment against Russian President Vladimir Putin.
However, Armenia’s signing of a strategic partnership agreement with the US on Tuesday was the most noteworthy development, given the country’s growing tilt toward the West. The two countries will also begin negotiations on a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, while Armenia plans to join the anti-Daesh coalition. On the security front, the US has allocated $27 million for Armenia’s border security and provided $16 million to support the establishment, training and equipping of Armenia’s nationwide Patrol Police Service. Increased Western investments in Armenia’s security and the conducting of joint exercises, such as the Eagle Partner exercises of 2023-2024 with the US, encourages Yerevan to break away from Russia’s sphere of influence.
This shift toward the West is seen as an attempt to offer Armenia both economic relief and a sense of security.
Sinem Cengiz
This strategic shift toward the West is seen as an attempt to offer Armenia both economic relief and a sense of security. So, where does Turkiye, Armenia’s western neighbor, stand within this context?
In a recent conversation with a senior diplomat from Armenia’s Foreign Ministry, I asked about Turkiye’s role in Armenia’s shifting foreign policy. He responded: “The normalization process with Ankara would positively affect Armenia’s foreign policy. Armenia is getting closer to Western partners and has EU aspirations. Opening the border with Turkiye, a member of the customs union, could serve as a bridge between Armenia and the EU. A closed border would hinder Armenia’s closer cooperation with the EU.”
Turkiye’s position is important because it is both a member of the EU Customs Union and NATO. It is also in the process of accession to the EU, despite there being no significant progress in this regard in recent years.
On the other side, Armenia is landlocked and has closed borders with two of its neighbors, Turkiye and Azerbaijan. If the border with Turkiye, which has been closed since 1993 due to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, were to open as a result of the normalization process with Ankara, this would provide Armenia with a vital opportunity to expand its trade routes, reduce transportation costs, access new markets and improve regional connectivity.
Access to new markets in the Mediterranean via Turkiye could drastically reduce Armenia’s dependence on Russia. Turkiye is an energy hub connecting Europe and Central Asia, while Armenia could benefit from better integration into the region’s energy networks. Therefore, the strategic value of opening the border with Turkiye lies in enhancing Armenia’s transit opportunities.
Armenia is seeking to diversify its foreign policy, with economic incentives playing a critical role in this shift. Having realized that Russia has not been helpful in achieving its foreign policy goals, Yerevan now emphasizes sovereignty, democracy and pragmatism as its new priorities. To achieve this, it aims to break free from Russia’s influence, maintain an autonomous foreign policy and even engage with former adversaries to boost its economic interests. Turkiye fits squarely into this new approach.
Access to new markets in the Mediterranean via Turkiye could drastically reduce Armenia’s dependence on Russia.
Sinem Cengiz
The EU and the US have been pushing for normalization between Armenia and Turkiye. If it goes ahead, Turkiye could act as a bridge in Armenia’s pivot to the West, despite its own challenges with Western institutions, and offer opportunities that could advance Yerevan’s economic goals and reduce its reliance on Russia.
Armenia is already part of the EU’s Eastern Partnership initiative, which promotes deeper economic ties with former Soviet states. As part of this initiative, the EU has long sought to improve relations between Armenia and Turkiye. In doing this, Brussels’ main aim is to strengthen its eastern neighborhood policy.
The US is also keen to push for normalization between Ankara and Yerevan, as it could pave the way for the opening of borders and enable Armenia to diversify its economy away from the Eurasian Economic Union. The US’ main aim is to prevent regional and global powers, namely China, Iran and Russia, from increasing their influence in this neighborhood, making Armenia’s pivot toward the West more sustainable and less susceptible to reversal.
However, the Armenian leadership is likely to face significant challenges to its pivot to the West and normalization of ties with Turkiye, as these efforts are likely to be opposed by some in the country’s domestic political arena, not to mention causing discontent in Russia.
- Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz